A pre-election analysis: Bleeding Sindh crawling towards uncertain electoral fate

A pre-election analysis:

Bleeding Sindh crawling towards uncertain electoral fate

Authored by ISMAIL DILAWAR on May 7 this article appeared in a special supplement of Pakistan Today on May 11

Nothing except the word uncertainty defines well the current scenario when it comes to election results on fast-approaching May 11 in the politically-congested Sindh province.

Saturday, according to Election Commission of Pakistan data, would see as many as 3,896 candidates facing off each other to get elected to 61 national and 130 provincial assembly seats in the province. Of this total, 1,087 would run for national and 2,809 for provincial assembly.

On May 11, former ruling coalition partners from Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Awami National Party (ANP) would be defending, respectively, 93, 51 and two seats in the 168-member Provincial Assembly of Sindh.

While the ex-opposition alliance, comprising Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML-F), Pakistan Muslim League-Quide (PML-Q), National People’s Party (NPP) and Peoples Muslim League (PML) would be eyeing to increase their respective 8, 8, 3 and 3 existing seats for the provincial assembly.

Also, for the 61 National Assembly seats the above and other political parties have rolled up sleeves having nominated hundreds of their candidates to grab as much public mandate as they can on the day of voters’ accountability.

VICTORY IN SINDH IS EVERYBODY’S GUESS

Who would sweep public mandate in the traditional stronghold of the ex-ruling PPP is everybody’s guess.

And rightly so, given the fact that political ground realities during this election are far more different than what these used to be five years ago in 2008.

What we witness today is the presence of political stakeholders that, the analysts believe, had committed “political suicide” by boycotting the previous polls.

Most prominent among them are Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and Jamat-i-Islami (JI) which, even if could not achieve the desired results this time in the PPP-dominated Sindh, are expected to divide the voter, to the sheer advantage and disadvantage of other contestants.

SUBDUED ELECTIONEERING

Unlike Punjab province, where electioneering is ongoing in a full swing with leadership of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PTI standing eyeball-to-eyeball, Sindh is in a tight grip of nerves-wracking rumors, for which, sky is the limit.

LIMITLESS GUESSING GAME

An unstoppable guessing game is underway in this politico-ideologically-divided province, particularly Karachi, where the voters are apprehending an engineered election on Saturday, at least, and a military coup soon after, at worst.

This atmosphere of uncertainty and doubts about transparency in the election process primarily emanates from the ongoing spate of deadly blasts targeting, masterly in this metropolis, the election campaign of three self-declared liberal progressive parties, the PPP, MQM and ANP.

The recent tirade of accusations the tri-party political alliance made against the “national and international establishments” added enough fuel to these doubts.

The three former ruling coalition partners, in media shows, accuse the most-referred “hidden hands” of supporting the right wing parties and their terrorist wings to the corridors of power through ballots.

The caretaker government, however, does not buy the claim saying terrorists were hitting across the board to sabotage the historic peaceful democratic transition in Pakistan the ruling history of which has been plagued with intermittent dictatorial incursions.

LACK OF ‘LEVEL-PLAYING’ FIELD

The political analysts, on the other hand, clearly feel the lack of a “level-playing” field, in terms of electioneering, for all political stakeholders, but not without ifs and buts.

Some conspiracy theorists go a step further and suspect these “low-intensity” blasts a political stunt of the three former coalition partners to gain “sympathy” vote given their alleged dismal performance during last five years in power.

This, however, is very much evident, especially in volatile Karachi, that while the alleged pro-Taliban parties like PML-N, JI and PTI are freely calling the shots, the PPP, MQM and ANP are finding it hard to entice their voters through holding full-fledged public meetings. They mainly are relying on door-to-door campaigning or have focused on the interior of Sindh only.

The cancellation of PTI’s May 1 public meeting at Jinnah’s Mausoleum for security concerns, however, remains a question to be answered by detractors of the party driven by the slogan of “change” with cricketer-turned politician Imran Khan in the chair.

Monday’s big car rally campaigning for MQM on the city roads also is indicative of the fact that either the MQM supporters have, psychologically, rid themselves of the ever-lurking threat terrorist attacks or the provincial caretaker government’s claim of containing Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan have materialized.

POLITICKING AFRESH

The participation of old and now-powerful stakeholders, JI and PTI respectively, and the emergence of new electoral alliances happen to be another factor that makes the election results highly unpredictable in Sindh.

Many would agree that PML-N, JI and PTI on May 11 would bag votes at the expense of existing players like MQM, PPP and the ANP, especially in urban centers like Karachi and Hyderabad.

10-PARTY ALLIANCE: A POTENTIAL THREAT?

With all the odds therein, a 10-party alliance is also posing a potential threat to the Peoples’ Party in the interior of Sindh.

Led by PML-F of Pir Pagara, the PML-N, NPP, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal, JI, Pakistan Sunni Tehreek (PST), JUP-Noorani (JUP-N), Qaumi Awami Tehreek (QAT), Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party (STPP) and Sindh United Party (SUP) have joined hands against the PPP and its former coalition partners from MQM and ANP in Sindh.

However, Major potential threat to the former ruling parties, however, stands to be the 10-party alliance.

PPP FACING ITS WATERLOO?

Before analyzing the electoral might of what a commentator called it “unnatural alliance” we should discuss where the “secular” PPP, MQM and ANP are standing in the voting race.

There are some who see this election as a Waterloo of the former ruling coalition, particularly the “Zardaris-led” PPP.

In support of their argument the proponent of this school of thought cite factors like leadership crisis, Zardaris replacing Bhuttos, PPP’s dubious thus unpopular policy stunts like local government system, internal divisions, political defections, change of horses in terms of nomination and the resultant disenchantment among “Jiyalas”, a disappointing performance during last five years and so on.

LEADERSHIP CRISIS

While President Zardari has been barred by Lahore High Court from taking part in election activities, PPP youngling chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is keeping away from his voters for security concerns.

Given a typical “Jiyala” approach of PPP voters, other party stalwarts like Makhdoom Amin Fahim can never fill the leadership gap Bhuttos have left behind.

“All big names of the PPP are reluctant to go in public. Pir Mazharul Haq (former senior minister of PPP) is being beaten up with shoes in his constituency and has therefore nominated his son (Pir Mujeebul Haq) this time,” an analyst claimed.

ZARDARI FACTOR

He went further saying PPP’s position was very weak during this election. “Zardari factor is a major setback for the party,” the analyst claimed.

The perception here in Sindh is deep-rooted that the PPP is the party of Bhuttos no further and that Faryal Talpur and Owais Muzaffar, respectively sister and foster brother of President Zardari, are the de facto heads of the “party of martyrs”.

Muzaffar, who is a PPP candidate from PS-88 Thatta, is even presumed to be the next chief minister of Sindh.

DEFECTIONS

Defections, both overt and covert, also are likely to set the PPP back in some of its traditional strongholds like PS-89 (Karachi) where Jadoons are likely to put their weight behind the ANP after Akhtar Hussain Jadoon, PPP’s former provincial transport minister, was denied party ticket.

Last month, hundreds of armed “Jiyalas” had stage a sit-in at Bilawal House to protest the PPP leadership’s decision against Jadoon.

A portrait of PPP’s slain chairperson Benazir Bhutto can be seen even today at Bilawal Chauwrangi which was half-torn by the angry protesters.

The PPP’s former minister is said to have, covertly, sided with Saleem Khan Jadoon of ANP. His father-in-law, Sikandar Shah Jadoon, has already declared his affiliation with the ANP.

LYARI POLITICS HAUNTS PPP

Similarly, Katchi community of PS-89 and NA-239, once PPP’s “khumba” vote, is enjoying its new-found love for PML-N’s Humayun Muhammad Khan and Qazi Fakhrul Hassan of JUI-F. Haji Younus, an independent candidate, too has enough of the Katchi backing.

Katchis are believed to have lost their love for the PPP because of the latter’s clandestine patronage of the outlawed People’s Aman Committee, an arch rival of Katchi Rabta Committee (KRC) in Lyari where the KRC has also fielded its own candidates.

Abdul Qadir Patel and Dilawar Shah of PPP would this time find it hard to retain the former’s 2008 position in the constituency.

Nazeer Shaikh and Munawar Ali Abbasi of Larkana, Nabeel Gabol of Lyari and others who defected to other parties are deemed not a good omen for the electioneering PPP.

UNFRIENDLY ‘BIRADRY’ VOTE

So strong in rural Sindh, the “biradry” vote also would go against the PPP as the party’s detractors foresee Arbabs in Tharparkar, Sherazis in Thatta, Jatois in Dadu, Mehers in Ghotki and Shaikhs in Larkana making victory dearer for PPP.

The party also has sidelined some of its most respected former lawmakers like Jam Tamachi Unnar of Nawabshah. The former chairman of Sindh Assembly’s Public Accounts Committee was a media-favorite for his blunt criticism of his own party fellows.

“They (PPP) can hardly retain 40 seats in Sindh Assembly that too would require them extensive campaigning,” viewed an analyst.

A great showdown is expected in PS-29 of Khairpur where two veteran politicians Qaim Ali Shah of PPP and Ghaus Ali Shah of PML-N would lock horns on the polling day to bring glory to their respective sides.

WHAT ABOUT MQM AND ANP?

Same is the forecast for MQM and ANP who, some analysts predict, would see their present vote bank shrink but not increase.

The MQM, the analysts believe, would feel the heat of the maiden electioneering of its former Shia voters under the banner of Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen in Karachi.

Then PML-N is also considered to have the potential to challenge some of MQM’s 2008 strongholds like PS-114 (Karachi) where Irfanullah Khan Marwat of Nawaz-League is being eyed as a favorite against Abdul Rauf Siddiqui of MQM.

Naimatullah Khan is another JI heavyweight who is all set to give tough time to Khushbakht Shujaat of MQM in NA-250.

In Hyderabad, except Qasimababd where Ayaz Latif Palijo of QAT seems to have a strong backing, no upset is likely by the 10-party alliance or others like PTI etc.

The ANP is believed to have won two provincial assembly seats in 2008 because of the absence and covert support of JI, which now itself is in the race. But, if this terrorism-hit party could do an upset this would be none other than PS-89 and NA-239 where Jadoons are leading an uninterrupted full-fledged election campaign.

WISHFUL THINKING

On the other hand, there are some who term this analysis as a wishful thinking of the detractors of three political allies, specially the PPP. “The PPP would appear much stronger than it was in the past in Sindh,” insisted Akhtar Baloch, a senior political analyst.

Mahadev, another political observer from Tharparkar, seconded Baloch’s view saying the people of Sindh would vote for PPP because they had no alternative.

“CHUTTAL KARTOOS” OF 10-PARTY ALLIANCE

Drew towards the 10-arty alliance, the analyst said: “In Sindhi we call it ‘Chuttal Kartoos’ (used cartridges). Most of the members of this alliance are already tested.”

Terming their alliance as “unnatural”, Mahadev said the politico-ideological philosophies of the allied parties would never let them come on the same page.

MODOODI AND G.M SYED ALLIED!

“This alliance comprises liberal Sindhi nationalists as well as the right wing parties like JI,” he said adding “Modoodi’s philosophy can never set well with that of G.M Syed. It is an unnatural alliance”.

PML-N, he argued, being a pro-Kalabagh Dam Punjab-based party would never be able to come to terms with Sindhi nationalists, to whom KBD is an issue of life and death.

Further, the analyst said, the alliance has nominated only 90 candidates for the 130 provincial seats. “How many seats these 90 contestants can be expected to win. The nomination is very low,” he wondered.

FAILURES IN SEAT ADJUSTMENT

Then there are failures in seat adjustment. On NA-250 Muhammad Kamran Khan (Tessori) of PML-F is going to adversely reflect on the vote bank of JI’s Naimatullah Khan.

Same is the situation in PS-89 and NA-239 where the alliance failed to make seat adjustment. Their candidates, thus, are facing each other in many of the province’s constituencies.

“Members of the 10-party alliance are not campaigning for a collective vote, but for separate party individuals,” said a political analyst.

“You name it as you like, I dub it a seat adjustment alliance,” he maintained.

THE SPIRITUAL DRAMA IN THAR

Led by former Sindh Chief Minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim who spent most of the time in self-exile after the famous show-throwing incident in 2008, the PML has also consolidated its political muscles to be flexed in Tharparkar district.

Thar is a traditional stronghold of Arbabs and sensing this, perhaps, the PPP has nominated its former MPA from Thar, Sharjeel Inam Memon, from Hyderabad this time. Memon was elected unopposed from PS-62 in 2008.

Many would love to see PTI’s Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, a Pir of Multan contesting independently from NA-230, testing the electoral allegiance of Tharparkar’s religious clans like Samejos, Rahimoons and Nohris.

PPP’s Pir Noor Mohammad Shah Jilani and independent Dr Ghulam Haider Samejo would face the PTI heavyweight. Qureshi, some sources said, has a backing of PML-F, something likely to fetch him majority in polls.

BUSINESS/CORPORATE VOTE

On the face of it, the electoral behavior of business community and that of corporate sector, especially in this financial hub of the country, seems to be tilted towards Nawaz Sharif, an industrialist who is assumed to have a pro-industrialists policy approach, naturally.

Contrary to it the PPP, which banks on its rural vote, does not seem to have much of the businessmen’s support.

“In the hope of PML-N led coalitions, the equity market has already built-in that scenario in the prices to a larger extent in spite of weakening foreign exchange reserves and election-related violence,” reads a report issued by Topline Research Monday.

Also undeniable is the fact that the PPP, during its five-year rule, has attracted enough of the businessmen’s ire for its apparent failure to maintain law and order in this commercial hub.

SUM UP

Amid the given highly divergent views what can be said with surety is that: There would be a nerve-wrecking tough fight on May 11 in Sindh which is full of diversity in terms of politico-ideological affiliations.

As a matter of fact, no political analyst but the voters on Saturday would decide who should be their elected representatives in the national and provincial assemblies for the next five years.

Me with a nice friend, Jameel Khan, covering Sindh Assembly proceedings!

Christian US soldier complains of harassment over Muslim-like name!

Christian US soldier complains of harassment over Muslim-like name

May 9, 2013 12am

RALEIGH (USA): A US Army sergeant whose family name led other soldiers mistakenly assume she is a Muslim says she was the target of taunts and discrimination for years.

Sgt. 1st Class Naida Hosan even changed her name to Nadia Christian Nova before deploying to Afghanistan in 2012, but she says that didn`t stop the problems. After the Catholic soldier repeatedly complained about racist jokes and epithets, Nova says she was labelled a Muslim sympathiser and that superiors tried to kick her out of the army.

Nova filed a complaint in federal court in January alleging religious discrimination. She later withdrew the suit after the army offered to drop all disciplinary action against her. A Persian Farsi linguist who works in military intelligence, Nova reenlisted in the army last month.

Courtesy to AP

ANP says militancy can not be rooted out sans government-civil society alliance.

ANP says militancy can not be rooted out sans government-civil society alliance.

Bahsir Jan, Sindh General Secretary in Sindh, says law and order in Karachi is worst than Waziristan.

Says use of force against militants could only be fruitful when the government and civil society take are on the same page.

The ANP leader, who often wears a bulletproof jacket after braving two recent attempts on his life, says discrepancies like “good” and “bad” Taliban  make the situation more complicated.

Supports negotiations with Taliban? Bashir says "Whom should we talk to. There is no one office, organization or leadership here. There is Mangal Bagh, there is Wali Rehman and a lot of other militant factions.”

PML-N rejoices arrival of Army in Karachi, do you?

PML-N rejoices arrival of Army in Karachi, do you?

“Welcome Pakistan Army welcome. Pakistan Army has arrived at Keamari Jungle Shah College to ensure free and fair elections,” reads a text message circulated in the city on Friday by the candidates, workers and supporters of Nawaz League.

“Thanks to Election Commission of Pakistan,” the SMS adds.

Saddening colors of labor unfold on May Day: Man-made wars, poverty put Afghan refugees, minority members into dirty labor

Saddening colors of labor unfold on May Day:

Man-made wars, poverty put Afghan refugees, minority members into dirty labor

Searching Bread in Dirt

15yr old Afghan Refugee Bashir is missing his school

May 1, 2013

KARACHI: As May 1, the international Labor Day, saw the world expressing solidarity with the laborers there are some in this densely-populated financial hub of Pakistan who have to worry about much more than meeting the two ends meal

The identity dilemma can be the most appropriate word we could use while telling the story of millions of Afghan refugees, Christian minority members and the internally displaced persons.

These under-privileged segments of our class-based society, willy-nilly, have to do dirty jobs to earn livelihood for their poor dependents living, in most cases, far away from them even in a different country. Putting their hands in filthy garbage and stinky gutters is the lifestyle they hatefully had to adopt for reasons ranging from the damaging side-effects of the US-led global War on Terror to a simple lack of education.

“Kuchray Wala” (trash collector) and “Bhungy” (sweeper) are the titles we generally assign to such poor laborers who could not have the luxury to stretch back at home even on May Day, an international public holiday.

To Basheer Mohammad, a 13-year-old Afghan refugee who lives at a garbage dump in impoverished Bhutta Village area of Keamari Town with his elderly father and younger brother, words like Labor Day or Child Labor mean nothing.

“I don’t go to school now,” said the kid when this reporter spotted him filling his half-full gunny bag with recyclable trash at the garbage dump in the scorching sunlight of Wednesday afternoon.

Dressed untidily, the afghan boy was looking for trash preferably made of plastic, iron or paper that, he said, was saleable at a price ranging from six to 354 rupees per kilogram. Basher whereas was reluctant to spare some time for an uncalled for interview, his nearby-working father, Mohammad Hussain, had a lot to share his plight with Pakistan Today.

“I have to leave my family back in Afghanistan and shift to an Afghan refugee camp here in Sohrab Goth when half and a year back a fight between Taliban and Americans reduced my only vehicle to ashes,” he said. Mohammad hails from Jowzjan, one of 34 provinces of Afghanistan which had been a hotspot of war on terror in the war-ravaged country.

Besides Basheer, the 60-year-old bearded man fathers Ali Mohammad, 15, Raj Mohammad, 10, Akhtar Mohammad, 7, Khan Mohammad, 4 and 11-year-old Shatireena who, in Afghanistan, goes to a seminary to get Islamic education. His wife, Ameena, is a house wife.

“All my children including Basher used to go to school until I got my vehicle burnt that left me heavily indebted (Rs 4 lac). So I had to migrate here in search of livelihood,” said Mohammad who has to pay Rs 40,000 under a one-year contract he has entered into with one of his countrymen (Afghan) for collecting garbage from the area.

The 15-year-old Ali too, he said, was associated with the dirty job he was compelled to do.

What, however, perturbs the troubled family the most is the question of their identity. “Police every now and then stop us and ask for the Identity Cards that have expired,” said the old man. “Just couple of days back the police stopped our vehicle and took Rs 200 from each of us saying you don’t have identity cards,” recalled Basheer who used to study in Class 7 in his heydays.

Why don’t you have the identity cards? “Because they say the new ‘Bacha’ (king) would decide whether we should be issued new ID cards or sent back to Afghanistan,” replied Mohammad. “We are waiting for the election results now,” said the brilliant child labor.

The poor garbage collectors said thousands of Afghans living in a Mohajir Camp near Sohrab Goth were facing the same fate. According to official figures up to 2005 some 2.7 million homeless Afghans were living in Pakistan of which, the UNHCR data suggest, only 1.7 million were registered.

According to Basher, many of his countrymen were affiliated with relatively profitable garbage business in Machar Colony, Teen Hatti, Sohrab Goth, Keamari, Shershah, Sadder other impoverished city neighborhoods.

“Who would willingly love to live far away from his family? I would go back to my country when the security situation there improves,” said Mohammad who is very appreciative of Pakistan, he described as “Islamic country”, and it’s very caring people.

Sarfaraz David, a Christian employee of Karachi Water and Sewerage Board who must clean private gutters in part-time to make sustenance for his 8-member family, was another neglected labor seen walking fast on the I.I Chundrigar Road near Jang Press Building with a thin bamboo and long iron bar in his hand.

“If we take an off what would we eat sir. You know, inflation is so backbreaking that we can’t be choosy in terms of work,” replied 35-year-old David, who lives with his parents, spouse, three children and a youngling brother in a rented house of Esa Nagri.

Drawing only Rs 8000 from KWSB, David has to clean gutters as a part-time to support his family. Even this part-time job, as he said, does not make a difference. “Some give me Rs 50 or Rs 100 at maximum,” said David whose father, Mr David, had migrated to Karachi from Faisalabad, he could not recall when.

His brother also was struggling in a private firm and earning Rs 7,000 a month.

Besides poverty, David also has to fight with the contemptuous behavior of the people around. “People despise us as Bhungy (sweeper) but all we can do is to get sad,” he was visibly shocked. Another factor he cited as haunting his fraternity was religious bigots.

“We are living here for decades but without having a clear idea whether or not we are Pakistanis,” said the poor laborer adding “There are people who embrace us but there are some who hate us.”

A rough estimate shows that each of the Christian and Hindu minorities constituted 208 million or 1.6 percent of Pakistan’s total population back in 2005.

Asked if he was OK with his dirty job David replied in negative: “Who would like to dip his hands in filthy stinky sewage water if not compelled”. Why this job only? “Because I am uneducated and then the dividend here is relatively higher than other private jobs,” he replied.

Abdullah, 25, is another hard working labor from Quetta, the federal capital of Balochistan province, who was seen at work on the May Day. He has his own issues pertaining to the law and order and the resultant downing rates of recyclable garbage he collects from dawn to dusk in various localities of this violence-hit metropolis.

“The violence in this city really is haunting us both in terms of business and physical safety,” said the youngling trash collector who lives in Gulshan-e-Sikandar Ababd area of Keamari Town.

Holding a gunny bag half-full of different refuses, Abdullah said at least four of his relatives had fallen prey to incidents of ethnic violence in the city. “I still remember how 8-year-old Mohammad had got killed in crossfire between two ethnic groups in Machar Colony,” he recalled.

The city’s uncertain law and order situation, he said, had rendered the buyers (of scrap) without cash. “Gone are the days when the buyers used to pay us on the spot. Every next day the banks are closed for a strike or violence. They say we can’t en-cash our cheques,” he said.

This uncertainty, Abdullah complained, also had brought the prices of recyclable scrap down. The trash items made of plastic, iron and paper that once used to be priced at Rs 42, Rs 48 and Rs 20 per kilogram now fetch, respectively, Rs 35, Rs 38 and Rs 10 only. The rates of scrap copper also decreased to Rs 550 form Rs 800 a kilo.

Abdullah, who is Maddrassah-educated and is engaged to be married soon, sees Karachi as an ideal place for living provide the city become peaceful for all those living here. -ENDS

To The Negotiating Table

To The Negotiating Table

Had I not been a firm believer of the view that most of the traditional concepts of conflict resolution in the discipline of international relations are outdated, I would have cast serious doubts on the TTP’s willingness to conditionally parley with the government dominated by the infidels, as the self-styled crusaders perceive of the declared secular parties like PPP, ANP and their other coalition partners.

In the post-9/11 world, the nature of conflicts and the parties involved therein have introduced a watershed change in the paradigms of conflict resolution methods. The wars being fought across the globe today see the states predominantly engaged with the non-state actors. And the non-state actors are those who, having already chosen militancy as a lifestyle and with no public pressure on their back, are totally unwary of the outcome of any process of negotiations they rarely opt for. These non-state actors, therefore, have the leverage to dictate terms and conditions for the talks.

In case of TTP in Pakistan, this leverage stands automatically doubled with Taliban seeing the world’s sole super military might, the US, backed by NATO, having ultimately chosen the path of dialogue to wrap up the decade-old guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan.

If evaluated against the backdrop of conventional conflict resolution methods, the TTP, being one of the conflicting sides, must come to the negotiation table sans preconditions that most of the time constitute the bone of contention between the warring groups. In fact, the belligerents, when sit across the table, negotiate these preconditions to pave the way for a broader range of parleys. This, however, is not the case with the so-called Pakistani Taliban who apparently tend to hold the most-discussed talks with arms in their hands.

No sane person would ever buy the contention that the TTP is serious in holding result-oriented talks with the politico-judicially-embattled government if the banned outfit’s conditional willingness for peace comes with the determination to ‘eliminate’ MQM, a major coalition partner of the ruling PPP and one of the most prominent stakeholders in the current polity in Pakistan.

Also, terming the imprisoned Muslim Khan and Maulvi Omar as the would-be leaders of their peace-negotiating team, the Taliban have linked the start of dialogues with their release. This is the most predictable stumbling block for the talks yet to commence. If analysed in depth, Sunday’s video message of TTP Spokesman Ihsanullah Ihsan or Yaseen Safi, Ihsan’s reported real name, depicts anything but Taliban’s willingness to shun violence, at least in the foreseeable future.

Instead, the TTP, seeking a trilateral guarantee from the leadership of PML-N, JUI-F and JI, seems to have some underlying political designs that, if not contained pragmatically, are very much likely to plague the electioneering country with a fresh political turmoil. Having already used terminologies like good and bad Taliban, we would soon be witnessing politicians categorised as pro- and anti-Taliban. Though murkily, politics is lurking from the ambiguous conditions set forth by the Taliban. What is more alarming, however, is the fact that the stakeholders from the govt’s side are also not apolitical in their response.

ANP’s KPK Information Minister Mian Iftikhar Hussain, who has lost his only son to militancy in the terrorism-stricken province, was quick in reportedly claiming that TTP had responded to ANP’s offer. “In fact, banned TTP expressed willingness for dialogue in response to ANP’s offer,” he said last Sunday. Another political touch in this entire episode is the fact that all of the leaders the TTP confided in as ‘guarantors’ from the military’s side are presently sitting in the opposition block and have one thing in common: anti-Americanism.

The three Taliban favourites also have a clear idea, more than others, of the realities on ground in a country like Pakistan where they know Parliament is not the only centre of power. This apprehension can be seen at work in a recent statement of Maulana Fazlur Rehman who has linked his role as a mediator with ‘total authority’.

This is an open secret that the shrewd Maulana is asking the all-powerful Pakistan Army for ‘total authority’ and not the elected government which cannot deal, unilaterally, with strategic issues Pakistan is facing on the War on Terror front. Also, the PPP-led political government is less likely to give a free space to these three politicians who are its potential rivals, most prominently PML-N, in the forthcoming election. PPP’s trouble-shooter, Interior Minister Rehman Malik, has sought ‘next few days’ for response to TTP’s offer.

JUI’s Deputy Secretary General Farid Paracha has already put enough weight behind this impression by saying that how his party could play as a guarantor given the government’s unwillingness to implement even the parliamentary resolutions.

Amid these miscomprehensions and apprehensions, the PPP would end up with the only choice of mobilising another Taliban favourite: Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan. Dr Khan, the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programme, and a disgraced figure for his alleged involvement in nuclear proliferation, is a ‘national asset’ to TTP, as Ihsan dubbed him in his 7-minute video message. It is prerequisite for a conflict resolution process that the mediator be acceptable to all sides. The non-partisan status of Dr Khan makes the former nuclear scientist equally a preferred choice for the PPP government.

What is direly needed in this country is to have a single legitimate decision-making central authority, let’s say the Parliament, which could independently decide the ill-defined national interest of Pakistan.

Putting it more simply, we would never be able to put an end to this never-lasting ideological fight called War on Terror if all pillars of the state, which include the government, army, judiciary, media and bureaucracy, fail to go hand-in-hand in bargaining with the militants.

The writer is a Karachi-based journalist. He can be reached at ismaildilawar@gmail.com - See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/02/08/comment/columns/to-the-negotiating-table/#sthash.0bqRCMm7.dpuf

The once Prince

Machiavelli sends Caesar Musharraf of Pakistan behind bars

“Considerations of the welfare of the state must outweigh any considerations of individual or group welfare,” Professor D R Bhandari quoted the 15th century political philosopher Machiavelli as advising the then Prince Caesar Borgia of the City State of Florence (Italy) in his monumental book: “History of European Political Philosophy”, printed first in 1937 in the Indian state of Bangalore.

“In the interests of the state he (the prince) must be ready to sin boldly,” Machiavelli goes on to spell out his, what the political scientists later termed as, “realpolitik” in his book “The Prince” while teaching the Caesar the art of the government.

Going through this inhumane, highly desensitised and state-centric Machiavellian political philosophy, I found, time and again, the image and statements of the dictator-turned-politician Pervez Musharraf flashing in my mind.

Under his self-proclaimed notion of Pakistan First, Musharraf served the state interest well by belittling individual and group interest through, as Machiavelli suggests, sinning boldly in the face of wiping out Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti, an individual, and the students of Lal Masjid, a group.

Greatly inspired by Aristotelian philosophy, Machiavelli (1469-1527) idealised his “new prince” as a leader who had seized a state with force. The Oct 12 coup in 1999 makes Musharraf a perfect mirror image of Machiavelli’s new prince who had grabbed the power of the state with the unparalleled (internally) might of Pakistan Army.

If media reports are to be cited, Musharraf, the ex-army chief who ruled Pakistan with an iron fist for nine long years, has been in a deep trouble ever since his homecoming from self exile.

The former president is sub-jailed in his farmhouse in Chak Shehzad to undergo a fortnightly judicial remand by a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) probing the APML chief for his alleged house-arresting of 60 members of superior courts for over five months post Nov 3, 2007, emergency.

As is evident from the retired general’s facial expressions visible in almost all of his news photos, Musharraf, a tested proponent of use of force as a head of the state, sees no quarter extending him an olive branch, something that makes his fate highly uncertain. And vulnerable in the worst case.

The atmosphere surrounding him is increasingly hostile with politicians, media, judiciary, lawyers, civil society and even army not ready, seemingly, to extend the most desirable helping hand to the former dictator.

What makes things worse for the “Pakistan First” fame former army chief is the fact that some of his past political allies from the now-electioneering PML-Q, MQM, PML-F, NPP and other political parties which ruled the country for years under his autocratic regime, have distanced themselves from the judicially-embattled general.

Instead, the senators from PML-Q and MQM extended a “silent support” to a couple of PPP-PML-N-backed resolutions calling for Musharraf to be tried under article 6 of the constitution during proceedings of the upper house.

To the discomfort of former general, this sudden change of political loyalties substantiates the proverbial impression that there is no permanent enemy and permanent friend in politics, but permanent interest.

The lawyers, who had waged a nationwide movement against Musharraf regime for the restoration of judiciary, also gave a cold shoulder to the retired general when the latter, reportedly, tried to pass on a friendly smile to a group of lawyers present at last Saturday’s proceedings at the ATC. Apparently, a confidence building measure taken by the former statesman, as his fast-depleting admirers still call him, this uncalled-for smile and the response thereof speak volumes about the level of antagonism the black coats harbour for the ex-dictator. Not to mention the earlier shoe-throwing at the Sindh High Court.

His former colleagues in uniform, once dubbed by the proud general as his “skin”, also appear to be indifferent to, what an APML spokeswoman Saturday claimed “judicial terrorism” a judge of the Islamabad High Court had committed against Musharraf on April 18 by ordering his arrest after the dismissal of the APML chief’s petition for pre-arrest bail.

Given the serious nature of other high-profile cases and the public sentiments attached to them, one can aptly surmise that the path ahead for the self-declared ex-commando is extremely rocky.

His detractors whereas want him to be punished for all the alleged wrongdoings he had committed during his reign, the former president and army chief insists that he only had acted in the national interest as a head of the state.

And here is where one can see the ruthless Machiavellian philosophy at work. By attributing his past unpopular deeds to the ill-defined national interest, Musharraf, like most of the rulers in contemporary world, wants to convey the message that his bloody use of force against Lal Masjid students, Nawab Akbar Bugti, agitating lawyers and even the media persons during Nov 2007 emergency was justified.

Put a cursory glance at the contemporary human history and you would find scores of Musharrafs committing crimes against humanity in the name of broader national interest, an ill-defined, ambiguous term mostly used, rather misused, by the rulers to justify their unpopular deeds.

This is the 15th century, out-fashioned, Machiavellian approach that made the biggest champions of international human rights in Obama regime assassinate international fugitive Osama bin Laden on May 3, 2011, in Abbotabad, extra-judicially. The Boston police just followed the suit by killing, in an overnight shootout, Tamerlan Tsarnaev, one of two Chechen brothers suspected for Monday’s deadly Marathon blasts.

It is unclear as to what extent Caesar Borgia of Florence had put into effect the Machiavellian guidelines. One thing, however, can be said with surety that if alive today the Italian political philosopher would have been overwhelmed to see many of his followers sitting at the helm of affairs. Musharraf would be a special pupil to Machiavelli who in his world famous book defines an ideal ‘new prince’ as an “enlightened despot” of an “unmoral” and not immoral type.

The former autocrat’s slogan of “enlightened moderation” whereas still has not set well with the predominantly ideological society of Pakistan, his successor General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, in his recent speech to military cadets at Kakul, has kick-started another intellectual debate by unveiling his own interpretation of the creation of Pakistan that, the army chief said, was “created in the name of Islam and Islam can never be taken out of Pakistan”.

This untimely rhetoric, as critics called it, of General Kayani, whose perceived all-powerful influence in the country’s political affairs makes him a de facto head of the state, seems to have set another theoretical tone for the crises-hit nation state of over 180 million.

So it’s the states, and not individuals, be it Musharraf, Basharul Assad, Saddam Hussain or Kayani for that matter, which require heads of the state to, as Machiavelli put it centuries ago, “sin boldly” to protect interest of the state.

All said and done, the crimes against humanity at the hands of Machiavellian states would go unabated unless the world senses the longstanding and pressing need for making the state humane.

The rulers, while formulating policies, would have to do away with the barbaric Machiavellian thoughts that might have conformed to the political paradigms of 15th century but are completely out of fashion in today’s globalised, pragmatically enlightened and questioning international society.

Or else, awakening societies like Pakistan would continue to witness more trials of these military, as well as civilian, dictators.

The writer is a researcher and a working journalist. He can be contacted at: ismaildilawar@gmail.com - See more at: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2013/04/29/comment/the-once-prince/#sthash.zawG21Mf.dpuf