A pre-election analysis: Bleeding Sindh crawling towards uncertain electoral fate

A pre-election analysis:

Bleeding Sindh crawling towards uncertain electoral fate

Authored by ISMAIL DILAWAR on May 7 this article appeared in a special supplement of Pakistan Today on May 11

Nothing except the word uncertainty defines well the current scenario when it comes to election results on fast-approaching May 11 in the politically-congested Sindh province.

Saturday, according to Election Commission of Pakistan data, would see as many as 3,896 candidates facing off each other to get elected to 61 national and 130 provincial assembly seats in the province. Of this total, 1,087 would run for national and 2,809 for provincial assembly.

On May 11, former ruling coalition partners from Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Awami National Party (ANP) would be defending, respectively, 93, 51 and two seats in the 168-member Provincial Assembly of Sindh.

While the ex-opposition alliance, comprising Pakistan Muslim League-Functional (PML-F), Pakistan Muslim League-Quide (PML-Q), National People’s Party (NPP) and Peoples Muslim League (PML) would be eyeing to increase their respective 8, 8, 3 and 3 existing seats for the provincial assembly.

Also, for the 61 National Assembly seats the above and other political parties have rolled up sleeves having nominated hundreds of their candidates to grab as much public mandate as they can on the day of voters’ accountability.

VICTORY IN SINDH IS EVERYBODY’S GUESS

Who would sweep public mandate in the traditional stronghold of the ex-ruling PPP is everybody’s guess.

And rightly so, given the fact that political ground realities during this election are far more different than what these used to be five years ago in 2008.

What we witness today is the presence of political stakeholders that, the analysts believe, had committed “political suicide” by boycotting the previous polls.

Most prominent among them are Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and Jamat-i-Islami (JI) which, even if could not achieve the desired results this time in the PPP-dominated Sindh, are expected to divide the voter, to the sheer advantage and disadvantage of other contestants.

SUBDUED ELECTIONEERING

Unlike Punjab province, where electioneering is ongoing in a full swing with leadership of Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PTI standing eyeball-to-eyeball, Sindh is in a tight grip of nerves-wracking rumors, for which, sky is the limit.

LIMITLESS GUESSING GAME

An unstoppable guessing game is underway in this politico-ideologically-divided province, particularly Karachi, where the voters are apprehending an engineered election on Saturday, at least, and a military coup soon after, at worst.

This atmosphere of uncertainty and doubts about transparency in the election process primarily emanates from the ongoing spate of deadly blasts targeting, masterly in this metropolis, the election campaign of three self-declared liberal progressive parties, the PPP, MQM and ANP.

The recent tirade of accusations the tri-party political alliance made against the “national and international establishments” added enough fuel to these doubts.

The three former ruling coalition partners, in media shows, accuse the most-referred “hidden hands” of supporting the right wing parties and their terrorist wings to the corridors of power through ballots.

The caretaker government, however, does not buy the claim saying terrorists were hitting across the board to sabotage the historic peaceful democratic transition in Pakistan the ruling history of which has been plagued with intermittent dictatorial incursions.

LACK OF ‘LEVEL-PLAYING’ FIELD

The political analysts, on the other hand, clearly feel the lack of a “level-playing” field, in terms of electioneering, for all political stakeholders, but not without ifs and buts.

Some conspiracy theorists go a step further and suspect these “low-intensity” blasts a political stunt of the three former coalition partners to gain “sympathy” vote given their alleged dismal performance during last five years in power.

This, however, is very much evident, especially in volatile Karachi, that while the alleged pro-Taliban parties like PML-N, JI and PTI are freely calling the shots, the PPP, MQM and ANP are finding it hard to entice their voters through holding full-fledged public meetings. They mainly are relying on door-to-door campaigning or have focused on the interior of Sindh only.

The cancellation of PTI’s May 1 public meeting at Jinnah’s Mausoleum for security concerns, however, remains a question to be answered by detractors of the party driven by the slogan of “change” with cricketer-turned politician Imran Khan in the chair.

Monday’s big car rally campaigning for MQM on the city roads also is indicative of the fact that either the MQM supporters have, psychologically, rid themselves of the ever-lurking threat terrorist attacks or the provincial caretaker government’s claim of containing Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan have materialized.

POLITICKING AFRESH

The participation of old and now-powerful stakeholders, JI and PTI respectively, and the emergence of new electoral alliances happen to be another factor that makes the election results highly unpredictable in Sindh.

Many would agree that PML-N, JI and PTI on May 11 would bag votes at the expense of existing players like MQM, PPP and the ANP, especially in urban centers like Karachi and Hyderabad.

10-PARTY ALLIANCE: A POTENTIAL THREAT?

With all the odds therein, a 10-party alliance is also posing a potential threat to the Peoples’ Party in the interior of Sindh.

Led by PML-F of Pir Pagara, the PML-N, NPP, Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal, JI, Pakistan Sunni Tehreek (PST), JUP-Noorani (JUP-N), Qaumi Awami Tehreek (QAT), Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party (STPP) and Sindh United Party (SUP) have joined hands against the PPP and its former coalition partners from MQM and ANP in Sindh.

However, Major potential threat to the former ruling parties, however, stands to be the 10-party alliance.

PPP FACING ITS WATERLOO?

Before analyzing the electoral might of what a commentator called it “unnatural alliance” we should discuss where the “secular” PPP, MQM and ANP are standing in the voting race.

There are some who see this election as a Waterloo of the former ruling coalition, particularly the “Zardaris-led” PPP.

In support of their argument the proponent of this school of thought cite factors like leadership crisis, Zardaris replacing Bhuttos, PPP’s dubious thus unpopular policy stunts like local government system, internal divisions, political defections, change of horses in terms of nomination and the resultant disenchantment among “Jiyalas”, a disappointing performance during last five years and so on.

LEADERSHIP CRISIS

While President Zardari has been barred by Lahore High Court from taking part in election activities, PPP youngling chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is keeping away from his voters for security concerns.

Given a typical “Jiyala” approach of PPP voters, other party stalwarts like Makhdoom Amin Fahim can never fill the leadership gap Bhuttos have left behind.

“All big names of the PPP are reluctant to go in public. Pir Mazharul Haq (former senior minister of PPP) is being beaten up with shoes in his constituency and has therefore nominated his son (Pir Mujeebul Haq) this time,” an analyst claimed.

ZARDARI FACTOR

He went further saying PPP’s position was very weak during this election. “Zardari factor is a major setback for the party,” the analyst claimed.

The perception here in Sindh is deep-rooted that the PPP is the party of Bhuttos no further and that Faryal Talpur and Owais Muzaffar, respectively sister and foster brother of President Zardari, are the de facto heads of the “party of martyrs”.

Muzaffar, who is a PPP candidate from PS-88 Thatta, is even presumed to be the next chief minister of Sindh.

DEFECTIONS

Defections, both overt and covert, also are likely to set the PPP back in some of its traditional strongholds like PS-89 (Karachi) where Jadoons are likely to put their weight behind the ANP after Akhtar Hussain Jadoon, PPP’s former provincial transport minister, was denied party ticket.

Last month, hundreds of armed “Jiyalas” had stage a sit-in at Bilawal House to protest the PPP leadership’s decision against Jadoon.

A portrait of PPP’s slain chairperson Benazir Bhutto can be seen even today at Bilawal Chauwrangi which was half-torn by the angry protesters.

The PPP’s former minister is said to have, covertly, sided with Saleem Khan Jadoon of ANP. His father-in-law, Sikandar Shah Jadoon, has already declared his affiliation with the ANP.

LYARI POLITICS HAUNTS PPP

Similarly, Katchi community of PS-89 and NA-239, once PPP’s “khumba” vote, is enjoying its new-found love for PML-N’s Humayun Muhammad Khan and Qazi Fakhrul Hassan of JUI-F. Haji Younus, an independent candidate, too has enough of the Katchi backing.

Katchis are believed to have lost their love for the PPP because of the latter’s clandestine patronage of the outlawed People’s Aman Committee, an arch rival of Katchi Rabta Committee (KRC) in Lyari where the KRC has also fielded its own candidates.

Abdul Qadir Patel and Dilawar Shah of PPP would this time find it hard to retain the former’s 2008 position in the constituency.

Nazeer Shaikh and Munawar Ali Abbasi of Larkana, Nabeel Gabol of Lyari and others who defected to other parties are deemed not a good omen for the electioneering PPP.

UNFRIENDLY ‘BIRADRY’ VOTE

So strong in rural Sindh, the “biradry” vote also would go against the PPP as the party’s detractors foresee Arbabs in Tharparkar, Sherazis in Thatta, Jatois in Dadu, Mehers in Ghotki and Shaikhs in Larkana making victory dearer for PPP.

The party also has sidelined some of its most respected former lawmakers like Jam Tamachi Unnar of Nawabshah. The former chairman of Sindh Assembly’s Public Accounts Committee was a media-favorite for his blunt criticism of his own party fellows.

“They (PPP) can hardly retain 40 seats in Sindh Assembly that too would require them extensive campaigning,” viewed an analyst.

A great showdown is expected in PS-29 of Khairpur where two veteran politicians Qaim Ali Shah of PPP and Ghaus Ali Shah of PML-N would lock horns on the polling day to bring glory to their respective sides.

WHAT ABOUT MQM AND ANP?

Same is the forecast for MQM and ANP who, some analysts predict, would see their present vote bank shrink but not increase.

The MQM, the analysts believe, would feel the heat of the maiden electioneering of its former Shia voters under the banner of Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen in Karachi.

Then PML-N is also considered to have the potential to challenge some of MQM’s 2008 strongholds like PS-114 (Karachi) where Irfanullah Khan Marwat of Nawaz-League is being eyed as a favorite against Abdul Rauf Siddiqui of MQM.

Naimatullah Khan is another JI heavyweight who is all set to give tough time to Khushbakht Shujaat of MQM in NA-250.

In Hyderabad, except Qasimababd where Ayaz Latif Palijo of QAT seems to have a strong backing, no upset is likely by the 10-party alliance or others like PTI etc.

The ANP is believed to have won two provincial assembly seats in 2008 because of the absence and covert support of JI, which now itself is in the race. But, if this terrorism-hit party could do an upset this would be none other than PS-89 and NA-239 where Jadoons are leading an uninterrupted full-fledged election campaign.

WISHFUL THINKING

On the other hand, there are some who term this analysis as a wishful thinking of the detractors of three political allies, specially the PPP. “The PPP would appear much stronger than it was in the past in Sindh,” insisted Akhtar Baloch, a senior political analyst.

Mahadev, another political observer from Tharparkar, seconded Baloch’s view saying the people of Sindh would vote for PPP because they had no alternative.

“CHUTTAL KARTOOS” OF 10-PARTY ALLIANCE

Drew towards the 10-arty alliance, the analyst said: “In Sindhi we call it ‘Chuttal Kartoos’ (used cartridges). Most of the members of this alliance are already tested.”

Terming their alliance as “unnatural”, Mahadev said the politico-ideological philosophies of the allied parties would never let them come on the same page.

MODOODI AND G.M SYED ALLIED!

“This alliance comprises liberal Sindhi nationalists as well as the right wing parties like JI,” he said adding “Modoodi’s philosophy can never set well with that of G.M Syed. It is an unnatural alliance”.

PML-N, he argued, being a pro-Kalabagh Dam Punjab-based party would never be able to come to terms with Sindhi nationalists, to whom KBD is an issue of life and death.

Further, the analyst said, the alliance has nominated only 90 candidates for the 130 provincial seats. “How many seats these 90 contestants can be expected to win. The nomination is very low,” he wondered.

FAILURES IN SEAT ADJUSTMENT

Then there are failures in seat adjustment. On NA-250 Muhammad Kamran Khan (Tessori) of PML-F is going to adversely reflect on the vote bank of JI’s Naimatullah Khan.

Same is the situation in PS-89 and NA-239 where the alliance failed to make seat adjustment. Their candidates, thus, are facing each other in many of the province’s constituencies.

“Members of the 10-party alliance are not campaigning for a collective vote, but for separate party individuals,” said a political analyst.

“You name it as you like, I dub it a seat adjustment alliance,” he maintained.

THE SPIRITUAL DRAMA IN THAR

Led by former Sindh Chief Minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim who spent most of the time in self-exile after the famous show-throwing incident in 2008, the PML has also consolidated its political muscles to be flexed in Tharparkar district.

Thar is a traditional stronghold of Arbabs and sensing this, perhaps, the PPP has nominated its former MPA from Thar, Sharjeel Inam Memon, from Hyderabad this time. Memon was elected unopposed from PS-62 in 2008.

Many would love to see PTI’s Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi, a Pir of Multan contesting independently from NA-230, testing the electoral allegiance of Tharparkar’s religious clans like Samejos, Rahimoons and Nohris.

PPP’s Pir Noor Mohammad Shah Jilani and independent Dr Ghulam Haider Samejo would face the PTI heavyweight. Qureshi, some sources said, has a backing of PML-F, something likely to fetch him majority in polls.

BUSINESS/CORPORATE VOTE

On the face of it, the electoral behavior of business community and that of corporate sector, especially in this financial hub of the country, seems to be tilted towards Nawaz Sharif, an industrialist who is assumed to have a pro-industrialists policy approach, naturally.

Contrary to it the PPP, which banks on its rural vote, does not seem to have much of the businessmen’s support.

“In the hope of PML-N led coalitions, the equity market has already built-in that scenario in the prices to a larger extent in spite of weakening foreign exchange reserves and election-related violence,” reads a report issued by Topline Research Monday.

Also undeniable is the fact that the PPP, during its five-year rule, has attracted enough of the businessmen’s ire for its apparent failure to maintain law and order in this commercial hub.

SUM UP

Amid the given highly divergent views what can be said with surety is that: There would be a nerve-wrecking tough fight on May 11 in Sindh which is full of diversity in terms of politico-ideological affiliations.

As a matter of fact, no political analyst but the voters on Saturday would decide who should be their elected representatives in the national and provincial assemblies for the next five years.