A pre-election analysis:
Bleeding Sindh crawling towards uncertain electoral fate
Authored by ISMAIL DILAWAR on May 7 this article appeared in
a special supplement of Pakistan Today on May 11
Nothing except the word uncertainty defines well the current
scenario when it comes to election results on fast-approaching May 11 in the politically-congested
Sindh province.
Saturday, according to Election Commission of Pakistan data,
would see as many as 3,896 candidates facing off each other to get elected to
61 national and 130 provincial assembly seats in the province. Of this total,
1,087 would run for national and 2,809 for provincial assembly.
On May 11, former ruling coalition partners from Pakistan
People’s Party (PPP), Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) and Awami National Party
(ANP) would be defending, respectively, 93, 51 and two seats in the 168-member
Provincial Assembly of Sindh.
While the ex-opposition alliance, comprising Pakistan Muslim
League-Functional (PML-F), Pakistan Muslim League-Quide (PML-Q), National
People’s Party (NPP) and Peoples Muslim League (PML) would be eyeing to
increase their respective 8, 8, 3 and 3 existing seats for the provincial
assembly.
Also, for the 61 National Assembly seats the above and other
political parties have rolled up sleeves having nominated hundreds of their
candidates to grab as much public mandate as they can on the day of voters’
accountability.
VICTORY IN SINDH IS EVERYBODY’S GUESS
Who would sweep public mandate in the traditional stronghold
of the ex-ruling PPP is everybody’s guess.
And rightly so, given the fact that political ground
realities during this election are far more different than what these used to
be five years ago in 2008.
What we witness today is the presence of political
stakeholders that, the analysts believe, had committed “political suicide” by
boycotting the previous polls.
Most prominent among them are Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf (PTI) and
Jamat-i-Islami (JI) which, even if could not achieve the desired results this
time in the PPP-dominated Sindh, are expected to divide the voter, to the sheer
advantage and disadvantage of other contestants.
SUBDUED ELECTIONEERING
Unlike Punjab province,
where electioneering is ongoing in a full swing with leadership of Pakistan Muslim
League-Nawaz (PML-N) and PTI standing eyeball-to-eyeball, Sindh is in a tight
grip of nerves-wracking rumors, for which, sky is the limit.
LIMITLESS GUESSING GAME
An unstoppable guessing game is underway in this
politico-ideologically-divided province, particularly Karachi, where the voters are apprehending an
engineered election on Saturday, at least, and a military coup soon after, at
worst.
This atmosphere of uncertainty and doubts about transparency
in the election process primarily emanates from the ongoing spate of deadly
blasts targeting, masterly in this metropolis, the election campaign of three
self-declared liberal progressive parties, the PPP, MQM and ANP.
The recent tirade of accusations the tri-party political
alliance made against the “national and international establishments” added
enough fuel to these doubts.
The three former ruling coalition partners, in media shows,
accuse the most-referred “hidden hands” of supporting the right wing parties
and their terrorist wings to the corridors of power through ballots.
The caretaker government, however, does not buy the claim
saying terrorists were hitting across the board to sabotage the historic
peaceful democratic transition in Pakistan the ruling history of
which has been plagued with intermittent dictatorial incursions.
LACK OF ‘LEVEL-PLAYING’ FIELD
The political analysts, on the other hand, clearly feel the
lack of a “level-playing” field, in terms of electioneering, for all political
stakeholders, but not without ifs and buts.
Some conspiracy theorists go a step further and suspect
these “low-intensity” blasts a political stunt of the three former coalition
partners to gain “sympathy” vote given their alleged dismal performance during
last five years in power.
This, however, is very much evident, especially in volatile Karachi, that while the
alleged pro-Taliban parties like PML-N, JI and PTI are freely calling the
shots, the PPP, MQM and ANP are finding it hard to entice their voters through
holding full-fledged public meetings. They mainly are relying on door-to-door
campaigning or have focused on the interior of Sindh only.
The cancellation of PTI’s May 1 public meeting at Jinnah’s
Mausoleum for security concerns, however, remains a question to be answered by
detractors of the party driven by the slogan of “change” with cricketer-turned
politician Imran Khan in the chair.
Monday’s big car rally campaigning for MQM on the city roads
also is indicative of the fact that either the MQM supporters have,
psychologically, rid themselves of the ever-lurking threat terrorist attacks or
the provincial caretaker government’s claim of containing Tehreek-i-Taliban
Pakistan have materialized.
POLITICKING AFRESH
The participation of old and now-powerful stakeholders, JI
and PTI respectively, and the emergence of new electoral alliances happen to be
another factor that makes the election results highly unpredictable in Sindh.
Many would agree that PML-N, JI and PTI on May 11 would bag
votes at the expense of existing players like MQM, PPP and the ANP, especially
in urban centers like Karachi and Hyderabad.
10-PARTY ALLIANCE:
A POTENTIAL THREAT?
With all the odds therein, a 10-party alliance is also
posing a potential threat to the Peoples’ Party in the interior of Sindh.
Led by PML-F of Pir Pagara, the PML-N, NPP, Jamiat
Ulema-i-Islam-Fazal, JI, Pakistan Sunni Tehreek (PST), JUP-Noorani (JUP-N),
Qaumi Awami Tehreek (QAT), Sindh Taraqi Pasand Party (STPP) and Sindh United
Party (SUP) have joined hands against the PPP and its former coalition partners
from MQM and ANP in Sindh.
However, Major potential threat to the former ruling
parties, however, stands to be the 10-party alliance.
PPP FACING ITS WATERLOO?
Before analyzing the electoral might of what a commentator
called it “unnatural alliance” we should discuss where the “secular” PPP, MQM
and ANP are standing in the voting race.
There are some who see this election as a Waterloo of the former ruling coalition,
particularly the “Zardaris-led” PPP.
In support of their argument the proponent of this school of
thought cite factors like leadership crisis, Zardaris replacing Bhuttos, PPP’s
dubious thus unpopular policy stunts like local government system, internal
divisions, political defections, change of horses in terms of nomination and
the resultant disenchantment among “Jiyalas”, a disappointing performance
during last five years and so on.
LEADERSHIP CRISIS
While President Zardari has been barred by Lahore High Court
from taking part in election activities, PPP youngling chairman Bilawal Bhutto
Zardari is keeping away from his voters for security concerns.
Given a typical “Jiyala” approach of PPP voters, other party
stalwarts like Makhdoom Amin Fahim can never fill the leadership gap Bhuttos
have left behind.
“All big names of the PPP are reluctant to go in public. Pir
Mazharul Haq (former senior minister of PPP) is being beaten up with shoes in
his constituency and has therefore nominated his son (Pir Mujeebul Haq) this
time,” an analyst claimed.
ZARDARI FACTOR
He went further saying PPP’s position was very weak during
this election. “Zardari factor is a major setback for the party,” the analyst
claimed.
The perception here in Sindh is deep-rooted that the PPP is
the party of Bhuttos no further and that Faryal Talpur and Owais Muzaffar,
respectively sister and foster brother of President Zardari, are the de facto
heads of the “party of martyrs”.
Muzaffar, who is a PPP candidate from PS-88 Thatta, is even
presumed to be the next chief minister of Sindh.
DEFECTIONS
Defections, both overt and covert, also are likely to set
the PPP back in some of its traditional strongholds like PS-89 (Karachi) where Jadoons
are likely to put their weight behind the ANP after Akhtar Hussain Jadoon,
PPP’s former provincial transport minister, was denied party ticket.
Last month, hundreds of armed “Jiyalas” had stage a sit-in
at Bilawal House to protest the PPP leadership’s decision against Jadoon.
A portrait of PPP’s slain chairperson Benazir Bhutto can be
seen even today at Bilawal Chauwrangi which was half-torn by the angry
protesters.
The PPP’s former minister is said to have, covertly, sided
with Saleem Khan Jadoon of ANP. His father-in-law, Sikandar Shah Jadoon, has
already declared his affiliation with the ANP.
LYARI POLITICS HAUNTS PPP
Similarly, Katchi community of PS-89 and NA-239, once PPP’s
“khumba” vote, is enjoying its new-found love for PML-N’s Humayun Muhammad Khan
and Qazi Fakhrul Hassan of JUI-F. Haji Younus, an independent candidate, too
has enough of the Katchi backing.
Katchis are believed to have lost their love for the PPP
because of the latter’s clandestine patronage of the outlawed People’s Aman
Committee, an arch rival of Katchi Rabta Committee (KRC) in Lyari where the KRC
has also fielded its own candidates.
Abdul Qadir Patel and Dilawar Shah of PPP would this time
find it hard to retain the former’s 2008 position in the constituency.
Nazeer Shaikh and Munawar Ali Abbasi of Larkana, Nabeel
Gabol of Lyari and others who defected to other parties are deemed not a good
omen for the electioneering PPP.
UNFRIENDLY ‘BIRADRY’ VOTE
So strong in rural Sindh, the “biradry” vote also would go
against the PPP as the party’s detractors foresee Arbabs in Tharparkar,
Sherazis in Thatta, Jatois in Dadu, Mehers in Ghotki and Shaikhs in Larkana
making victory dearer for PPP.
The party also has sidelined some of its most respected
former lawmakers like Jam Tamachi Unnar of Nawabshah. The former chairman of
Sindh Assembly’s Public Accounts Committee was a media-favorite for his blunt
criticism of his own party fellows.
“They (PPP) can hardly retain 40 seats in Sindh Assembly
that too would require them extensive campaigning,” viewed an analyst.
A great showdown is expected in PS-29 of Khairpur where two
veteran politicians Qaim Ali Shah of PPP and Ghaus Ali Shah of PML-N would lock
horns on the polling day to bring glory to their respective sides.
WHAT ABOUT MQM AND ANP?
Same is the forecast for MQM and ANP who, some analysts
predict, would see their present vote bank shrink but not increase.
The MQM, the analysts believe, would feel the heat of the
maiden electioneering of its former Shia voters under the banner of
Majlis-e-Wahdatul Muslimeen in Karachi.
Then PML-N is also considered to have the potential to
challenge some of MQM’s 2008 strongholds like PS-114 (Karachi) where Irfanullah Khan Marwat of
Nawaz-League is being eyed as a favorite against Abdul Rauf Siddiqui of MQM.
Naimatullah Khan is another JI heavyweight who is all set to
give tough time to Khushbakht Shujaat of MQM in NA-250.
In Hyderabad,
except Qasimababd where Ayaz Latif Palijo of QAT seems to have a strong
backing, no upset is likely by the 10-party alliance or others like PTI etc.
The ANP is believed to have won two provincial assembly
seats in 2008 because of the absence and covert support of JI, which now itself
is in the race. But, if this terrorism-hit party could do an upset this would
be none other than PS-89 and NA-239 where Jadoons are leading an uninterrupted
full-fledged election campaign.
WISHFUL THINKING
On the other hand, there are some who term this analysis as
a wishful thinking of the detractors of three political allies, specially the
PPP. “The PPP would appear much stronger than it was in the past in Sindh,”
insisted Akhtar Baloch, a senior political analyst.
Mahadev, another political observer from Tharparkar,
seconded Baloch’s view saying the people of Sindh would vote for PPP because
they had no alternative.
“CHUTTAL KARTOOS” OF 10-PARTY ALLIANCE
Drew towards the 10-arty alliance, the analyst said: “In
Sindhi we call it ‘Chuttal Kartoos’ (used cartridges). Most of the members of
this alliance are already tested.”
Terming their alliance as “unnatural”, Mahadev said the
politico-ideological philosophies of the allied parties would never let them
come on the same page.
MODOODI AND G.M SYED ALLIED!
“This alliance comprises liberal Sindhi nationalists as well
as the right wing parties like JI,” he said adding “Modoodi’s philosophy can
never set well with that of G.M Syed. It is an unnatural alliance”.
PML-N, he argued, being a pro-Kalabagh Dam Punjab-based
party would never be able to come to terms with Sindhi nationalists, to whom
KBD is an issue of life and death.
Further, the analyst said, the alliance has nominated only
90 candidates for the 130 provincial seats. “How many seats these 90
contestants can be expected to win. The nomination is very low,” he wondered.
FAILURES IN SEAT ADJUSTMENT
Then there are failures in seat adjustment. On NA-250
Muhammad Kamran Khan (Tessori) of PML-F is going to adversely reflect on the
vote bank of JI’s Naimatullah Khan.
Same is the situation in PS-89 and NA-239 where the alliance
failed to make seat adjustment. Their candidates, thus, are facing each other
in many of the province’s constituencies.
“Members of the 10-party alliance are not campaigning for a
collective vote, but for separate party individuals,” said a political analyst.
“You name it as you like, I dub it a seat adjustment
alliance,” he maintained.
THE SPIRITUAL DRAMA IN THAR
Led by former Sindh Chief Minister Dr Arbab Ghulam Rahim who
spent most of the time in self-exile after the famous show-throwing incident in
2008, the PML has also consolidated its political muscles to be flexed in
Tharparkar district.
Thar is a traditional stronghold of Arbabs and sensing this,
perhaps, the PPP has nominated its former MPA from Thar, Sharjeel Inam Memon,
from Hyderabad
this time. Memon was elected unopposed from PS-62 in 2008.
Many would love to see PTI’s Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi,
a Pir of Multan contesting independently from NA-230, testing the electoral
allegiance of Tharparkar’s religious clans like Samejos, Rahimoons and Nohris.
PPP’s Pir Noor Mohammad Shah Jilani and independent Dr
Ghulam Haider Samejo would face the PTI heavyweight. Qureshi, some sources
said, has a backing of PML-F, something likely to fetch him majority in polls.
BUSINESS/CORPORATE VOTE
On the face of it, the electoral behavior of business
community and that of corporate sector, especially in this financial hub of the
country, seems to be tilted towards Nawaz Sharif, an industrialist who is
assumed to have a pro-industrialists policy approach, naturally.
Contrary to it the PPP, which banks on its rural vote, does
not seem to have much of the businessmen’s support.
“In the hope of PML-N led
coalitions, the equity market has already built-in that scenario in the prices
to a larger extent in spite of weakening foreign exchange reserves and
election-related violence,” reads a report issued by Topline Research Monday.
Also undeniable is the fact that the PPP, during its
five-year rule, has attracted enough of the businessmen’s ire for its apparent
failure to maintain law and order in this commercial hub.
SUM UP
Amid the given highly divergent views what can be said with
surety is that: There would be a nerve-wrecking tough fight on May 11 in Sindh
which is full of diversity in terms of politico-ideological affiliations.
As a matter of fact, no political analyst but the voters on
Saturday would decide who should be their elected representatives in the
national and provincial assemblies for the next five years.
